The max pain theory, which suggests an asset's price tends to gravitate toward the level where the most options contracts expire worthless, is being tested as bitcoin trades well below its $72,000 max pain point. With a $10 billion quarterly options settlement scheduled for the following day, the divergence challenges the assumption that large expiries pull spot prices toward levels favoring options sellers. Bitcoin's position far from the $72K mark suggests other market forces are overriding any gravitational pull from the concentration of contracts. The mismatch highlights the limits of max pain as a reliable short-term price predictor, particularly during periods of broader market pressure. Traders often watch quarterly expiries for volatility, but the current setup indicates the theory may not hold as a dependable guide for bitcoin's near-term direction heading into settlement.
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