On-chain analytics firm Glassnode warns that Bitcoin has entered a deep discount phase, with more than 95% of short-term holders currently underwater and realized losses nearing levels historically associated with severe market capitulation. According to Glassnode's latest Week On-chain report, a sustained Bitcoin recovery is unlikely without a meaningful shift in macroeconomic conditions — specifically, the dollar index (DXY) falling below 99 or the 10-year Treasury yield compressing significantly. The findings suggest Bitcoin's ability to hold the $60,000 support level is less a function of crypto-native demand and more a reflection of broader macro forces. Until those external conditions ease, analysts caution that further downside pressure remains a realistic risk for short-term market participants.
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