The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has proposed new rules that would prohibit prediction markets where outcomes could be influenced by war, assassination, or the removal of foreign adversaries — even in cases where armed conflict is not explicitly referenced in the contract. The rules would effectively block wagers on events such as the ouster of leaders considered enemies of the United States. The proposal expands the scope of restricted event contracts beyond explicit violence, targeting markets where geopolitical conflict could indirectly determine results. This marks a significant regulatory tightening for platforms like Polymarket, which have grown rapidly by offering contracts on political and global events, raising questions about where the boundaries of permissible prediction markets now lie.
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