Grayscale argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle no longer drives its price, marking a shift in how the market may behave going forward. According to the crypto asset manager, Bitcoin is now more closely tied to broader macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy than to its historical supply-based patterns. The firm suggests Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom, but says a sustained recovery could depend on supportive action from the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate cuts or looser financial conditions. This view reflects Bitcoin's growing integration with traditional markets, where liquidity and central bank decisions increasingly influence risk assets. Grayscale's outlook implies investors should watch macro signals rather than relying on prior cycle timing. The analysis underscores a maturing narrative around Bitcoin as an asset shaped by global economic forces rather than isolated crypto-specific dynamics.
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