A busy week of US macroeconomic releases — including PCE inflation figures, weekly jobless claims, and housing market data — is set to test expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Markets have been pricing in potential easing later in 2025, but incoming data could either reinforce or undermine that outlook. For
Bitcoin's recent price surge, driven by optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear framework, hinges on whether downstream macro indicators follow through. A credible deal could suppress oil prices, easing inflationary pressure and reopening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts — conditions historically supportive of risk assets
Recent developments at the Federal Reserve signal incremental but potentially significant changes for the cryptocurrency sector. While the specific policy adjustments remain measured, their downstream effects on digital asset markets could prove meaningful as the relationship between traditional monetary policy and crypto continues to evolve. The Fed's stance
Federal Reserve minutes from the April meeting revealed that most policymakers believe further policy tightening may be necessary if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target, directly undermining the rate-cut narrative that Bitcoin markets had been pricing in throughout 2025. Rather than signalling relief through lower borrowing costs, the
Interest rate swap markets now fully price in a Federal Reserve rate hike of at least 25 basis points by end-2026, flipping the narrative that had previously supported Bitcoin as a beneficiary of anticipated Fed easing. Bloomberg reported the shift on May 22, the same day Fed Governor Christopher
Rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% are creating an unexpected stress test for Bitcoin's foundational investment thesis. Bitcoin was designed as a hedge against reckless government borrowing and currency debasement, but the same debt spiral it was meant to benefit from is now tightening financial conditions across
Bank of America analysts suggest that US tariff refunds could act as a macroeconomic tailwind for Bitcoin by helping cool inflation pressures. US Customs and Border Protection had already processed $35.46 billion in tariff refunds as of May 11, a figure that has shifted the conversation from legal speculation
CME FedWatch now shows a 54% chance of a December rate hike, crushing Bitcoin's hopes for monetary relief. Bitcoin's macroeconomic outlook shifted sharply as of May 20, 2026, with CME FedWatch data showing a 54.1% probability of a rate hike at the December 2026 Federal