A proposed 60-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, reported by Nikkei on May 25, would keep Bitcoin tethered to geopolitical uncertainty rather than allowing it to trade on crypto-specific fundamentals. Under the framework, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping lane — would reopen roughly 30 days after a final deal, with nuclear negotiations conducted during the ceasefire window. However, fresh US military strikes have already tested the fragility of that arrangement, raising questions about whether the diplomatic timeline can hold. For Bitcoin, prolonged macro uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions limits its ability to decouple from risk-off sentiment, keeping price action reactive to headlines rather than on-chain or market-driven catalysts.
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